This is a short update before the B race in this build, the Grand Raid du Guillestrois - Queyras, Le trail des 6 Cols. It starts at 18:00 on Friday, July 3rd. I have done the analysis on what to expect, and here are the observations that come to mind heading in.
A first edition
According to the results, this is the first time the race is being run. There is no archive of finish times to study, no prior accounts to read, no sense of how the cutoffs actually play out in practice. For a course breakdown I usually lean on what other people have done. Here there is nothing, so the planning is built entirely on the route data and videos from the longer race, La Grande Traversee with 105km.
No drop bag
The bigger surprise is that there is no drop bag. This will be the first night start I run without one. It changes the nutrition plan in two ways.
First, I cannot stage my carb mix along the course, so I rely much more on whatever the aid stations carry. Second, I have to carry more from the start, which means starting heavier than I would like.
I am splitting the nutrition into two halves. For the first half I will carry roughly 450 grams of home-cooked food, mostly instant mashed potatoes and rice balls, the savory foods that have held up for me before. For the second half I shift to quick carbohydrates: gels and about 400 grams of carb mix. The logic is to use the real food while my stomach still tolerates it, and lean on fast sugar later when it usually will not.
The numbers
When I look at my trail runs over the past year and match this distance and elevation profile against them, the model points to an expected pace of 11:34/km, stops included. On 87.6 kilometers that works out to 16:53:43.
For comparison, Tobler’s hiking function estimates a pace of 17:03/km for a hiker covering the same route. So the prediction has me moving only slightly faster than a steady hiker would, which tells you what kind of race this is.
The route comparison puts it in context against the other races in this stretch and against Spartathlon itself.
There is one important caveat in that 11:34 prediction. It assumes an altitude that requires no adaptation, and Queyras does not give me that. The route climbs above 3000 meters. I have spent time at that altitude before, but never in a race, and certainly never in an ultra trail. The model has no data for how I move up there, so I treat its number as optimistic.
Altitude and exposure
From the videos of the terrain, the route looks very exposed. Exposure cuts both ways with the weather. It means more wind, colder lows when it is cold, and harsher heat when the sun is out, with little shade to hide in either case. Combined with the altitude, this is the part I have the least direct experience with going in.
The goal
This is a controlled finish, not a time. It is a B race, and its job is to feed the Spartathlon build, not to be raced.
That said, a finish under 12:00/km would be a good result. Plan A is to aim for around 11:50/km, which on this distance lands near 17:17 of total time, putting the finish around late Saturday morning given the Friday evening start.
The summary is that, between the hiking-pace prediction, the altitude, and the exposed terrain, this is starting to look less like a race and more like a long hike in the mountains.
